Still no sign of that Conservative majority

TC has previously discussed the difficulty faced by the Conservative party in winning a majority.  The prospect of a Conservative majority continues to be unlikely.

TC has averaged the polls released in the past five days and projects the following outcome:

	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other	Total
CDA	143	79	37	0	48	1	308

The seat totals make it clear that to date there has been remarkably little change since 2008.  Here is the shift represented by the poll average used in the seat projection from the 2008 results:

	C.P.C.	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Other
Canada	0.2	1.1	1.6	1.7	-4.7	-0.0
Atlantic	4.9	2.2	-3.8	-1.8	1.8	-2.3
Quebec	-2.7	-3.7	9.7	2.7	-6.6	0.5
Ontario	2.2	1.8	-0.8	-2.6	0.4	-0.8
Man/Sask	-2.5	3.8	-3.2	1.0	1.5	-0.7
Alberta	-3.5	5.4	0.9	-1.4	1.0	-1.5
BC	-4.9	5.5	-1.1	-0.0	1.4	0.2

Note that biggest shift is represented by NDP gains in Quebec. The Conservatives have gained about five points in Atlantic Canada while losing a similar share in BC.  The Liberals have gained five points in BC and Alberta but lost ground in Quebec.  The other polling numbers represent, at best, quite limited shifts. Given the uncertainty and difficulty of measuring regional outcomes accurately, we cannot be certain that there have been significant shifts anywhere. However, the NDP's almost ten point gain in Quebec is clearly too large to ignore.