Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Six national polls and the slow death of the Harper Conservatives

The stock market crashed in September. After a lag of six months the ensuing downturn is now seriously hurting the governing Conservatives.

Each of six national pollsters reported in their most recent survey a downturn for the Conservatives since their previous poll. Most had reported signs of weakening previously:
  1. Harris-Decima - April 21 here and March 13 here.
  2. Strategic Counsel - on page 5 here, polls from March 5-8 and April 2-5
  3. Ipsos Reid - March 10 here, and February 7 here (both polls showed the Conservatives weakening)
  4. Nanos Research - March 21 here, and Feb. 12 here
  5. Angus Reid - Results from April 21-22 and March 10-11 can be found on page 4 here.
  6. Ekos - April 16 here, and Jan. 21 here.
In addition there is a Leger Marketing survey - March 30 here. The poll reported the Conservatives trailing but it was Leger's first poll since the 2008 election.

Economic downturns destroy national Canadian incumbent governments quite efficiently albeit not instantly; the death can be slow and painful.

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